ACUS11 KWNS 242346
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242346=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-250115-

Mesoscale Discussion 2011
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0646 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Areas affected...Eastern TX Panhandle and far western OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 242346Z - 250115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and locally severe gusts are possible
for the next couple hours. A watch is not currently expected, though
trends are being monitored.

DISCUSSION...A couple of discrete storms have recently intensified
along a north/south-oriented surface boundary extending across the
far eastern TX Panhandle, while a separate storm cluster has been
evolving along an antecedent outflow boundary in northwest OK. Ahead
of these storms, a warm/moist PBL (lower 60s dewpoints) and modest
midlevel lapse rates are yielding weak surface-based buoyancy.
However, around 40 kt of effective shear should continue to favor
supercell structure, with a risk of isolated large to very large
hail and locally severe gusts. The severe risk should persist for
another couple hours, prior to increasing nocturnal static
stability. Given the potentially limited spatiotemporal nature of
the threat, it is unclear if a watch is needed, though trends are
being monitored.

..Weinman/Smith.. 08/24/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8ziYvEs_S8eiCMpVsjQrN_lU3mH7-m1eQ9H61P1-9F4nTOobfZpWNjC5KioQX8yZDIGEZV1p1= 292kofPIMOhQrG212E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 34739996 34810055 35040084 35390102 35970101 36440052
36520027 36429967 36129890 35569873 35169881 34839925
34739996=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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