ACUS11 KWNS 242057
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242057=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-242300-

Mesoscale Discussion 2010
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Areas affected...Portions of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles into
northwest Oklahoma and far southwest Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 242057Z - 242300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development across parts of the OK/TX
Panhandles into far northwest Oklahoma and far southwest Kansas
appears possible this afternoon. If initiation occurs, severe
hail/wind will be possible.

DISCUSSION...Recent GOES imagery and surface observations show slow
vertical development of cumulus along an outflow boundary draped
from northwest OK into southwest KS/eastern CO. Temperatures warming
into the low 90s and low/mid 80s on the warm and cool side of the
boundary (respectively) suggest that MLCIN continues to erode across
this region. Given that forcing for ascent is weak and largely tied
to the outflow boundary, it remains uncertain whether or not
sustained convective initiation will occur through peak heating.
However, the recent satellite and surface observation trends suggest
that this is a possibility. If sustained convection can develop, it
will mature within an environment characterized by around 1000-1500
J/kg MLCAPE and elongated hodographs featuring around 30-40 knots of
effective bulk shear per recent forecast soundings. Convective
coverage would likely be sufficiently isolated to promote
supercells, which may be capable of severe gusts and large hail
(possibly up to 2-2.5 inches). Enhanced near-surface vorticity along
the boundary and southeasterly flow/augmented low-level SRH to the
immediate east of the boundary may support some tornado threat.
While watch issuance is not expected due to uncertainty regarding
initiation, convective trends will be monitored.

..Moore/Gleason.. 08/24/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9n2jOub-aRiNFbgcKkvUPYZ44U2CMSh0xv_8Pfvh3tl2kMNror5MxkVkULFic1zX0iESLKMsx= BKFaNxpaxoyMoUlF7M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON 37360138 37340108 37180076 36990037 36759992 36629953
36359938 36049950 35789972 35730004 35870044 36260117
36400138 36640159 36870169 37200167 37360138=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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