ACUS11 KWNS 241946
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241946=20
KSZ000-COZ000-242145-

Mesoscale Discussion 2009
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Colorado to southwest Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 241946Z - 242145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated supercell or two appears possible this
afternoon across eastern Colorado to southwest Kansas. Large hail,
and perhaps a tornado, will be possible.

DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery show steady vertical development of
convective towers near the intersection of a diffuse warm front
draped across eastern CO and a decaying outflow boundary from
morning convection. Temperatures warming into the upper 70s and low
80s continue to erode lingering MLCIN in the vicinity of the
boundary intersection, which should help increase the probability of
sustained convection in the coming hours. While it remains unclear
how many thunderstorms will emerge from this zone due to weak
forcing for ascent, the downstream environment is becoming
increasingly favorable for supercells with MLCAPE increasing to
around 1500 J/kg and deep-layer wind shear on the order of 35-45
knots in the vicinity of the boundary. Additionally, backed winds on
the cool side of the boundary (where temperatures are quickly
recovering) may support locally-enhanced low-level SRH and/or
augmented low-level vertical vorticity on the boundary itself.
Consequently, it is conceivable that a supercell could propagate
along the boundary to the southeast with an attendant threat for
large hail (possibly as large as 2.5 inches) and perhaps a tornado.
Watch issuance is not imminent due to uncertainty regarding storm
coverage, but convective trends will continue to be monitored
through this corridor.

..Moore/Gleason.. 08/24/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-Rs-v-5I9zoTEy8r4F5K5sGIeVW_QSf1hkAYniAd2O6AG9Kvs69l_lx_JTY-Aghvba_frBoGz= dZQqN6Y6Xk7Vz2dPBQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON 38920363 39240385 39650373 39810340 39840299 39050173
38120083 37760080 37520111 37320146 37350181 37500212
38920363=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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