• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2008

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Aug 24 17:04:32 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 241704
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 241704=20
    NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-241900-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2008
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1204 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

    Areas affected...portions of western/central New York and central
    Pennsylvania

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 241704Z - 241900Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce
    locally damaging gusts and hail through the afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms and deepening cumulus are noted
    along a cold front extending across western NY/PA early this
    afternoon. Where stronger heating has cleared amid scattered/broken
    cloudiness, temperatures have warmed into the mid 70s to low 80s F
    amid 60s F dewpoints. While midlevel lapse rates remain weak, this
    is sufficient for weak destabilization across the area in a narrow
    corridor ahead of the front. Increasing southwesterly flow with
    height is supporting modest vertical shear, with effective shear
    magnitudes generally around 30 kt per regional VWP data. This should
    be sufficient for organized cells. As heating allows for steepened
    low-level lapse rates, isolated strong to locally damaging gusts
    will be possible through the afternoon. While midlevel lapse rates
    are generally weak, cool 500 mb temperatures (-10 to -12 C) and
    favorable vertical shear profiles (exhibiting elongated/straight
    hodographs) may also support isolated marginally severe hail to near
    1 inch diameter. Convection may be more sparse/later developing with
    southward extent into central PA as the cold front develops east
    more slowly compared to further north, limiting forcing for ascent.

    Given the overall marginal thermodynamic environment, a watch is not
    currently expected and the severe risk should remain relatively limited/sporadic.

    ..Leitman/Gleason.. 08/24/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5tGVcdgZ5h22kzxZC7WGiF7yri832f8RHHg6U7xNJNDUsZQZmOPcxqyxE0PRRPyOobO1fP322= rokRkld_hDziXFVEvo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...

    LAT...LON 43257719 44647508 44557426 43887440 43047511 39697812
    39867881 40037907 41857840 42557813 42867780 43257719=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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