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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0926

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu May 22 00:57:51 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 220057
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 220057=20
    MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-220300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0926
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0757 PM CDT Wed May 21 2025

    Areas affected...parts of the Ozarks/Mid-South

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 220057Z - 220300Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop into late
    evening, yielding an increasing threat for sporadic large hail and
    locally strong gusts. Initial storms may largely remain marginally
    severe, yielding uncertainty on coverage/intensity for a severe
    thunderstorm watch.

    DISCUSSION...Convective attempts have occurred along a
    quasi-stationary front over north-central AR and to the north of
    this front in far southwest MO. This latter zone should be the start
    of the well-advertised elevated convective regime this evening as
    800-700 mb warm theta-e advection intensifies. Initially, mid-level
    lapse rates are modest per the 00Z LZK sounding and model forecast
    soundings. This should temper initial updraft strength amid weak to
    modest elevated buoyancy. However, upstream lapse rates are steeper
    and in conjunction with a strengthening mid-level jetlet, should
    foster a more favorable instability/shear environment towards
    midnight on the western flank of the elevated convective plume. This
    setup may result in two separate regimes, one with marginally severe
    hail and locally strong gusts moving into the Mid-South, and a
    second round of large hail threat persisting into the Ozarks
    overnight.

    ..Grams/Hart.. 05/22/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5Q1ZX9IZpUKynRELP1dUDIrnudH4HusodpJey-trucx4CY7u34hQ07txDuOHL9kA4auOW5P0l= OLX3f0UI2VUG8nlIWI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...

    LAT...LON 37579514 37659426 37129255 36519055 35979031 35549050
    35389105 35619229 36229422 36889501 37299542 37579514=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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