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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0918

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed May 21 08:37:13 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 210837
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 210836=20
    SCZ000-GAZ000-211000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0918
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0336 AM CDT Wed May 21 2025

    Areas affected...central into eastern Georgia

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 210836Z - 211000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorms across portions of the southeast
    will generally continue to weaken this morning. However a brief wind
    threat or QLCS-like tornado threat may persist in the short term,
    before weakening.

    DISCUSSION...A broken line of thunderstorms continues to move
    east-southeast across eastern Alabama and central Georgia this
    morning. These thunderstorms have generally been on a weakening
    trend since late Tuesday evening. However, the environment remains
    strongly sheared and buoyant this morning, which supports at least
    episodic thunderstorm intensity pulses capable of producing sporadic
    wind damage. Additionally, 0-500 meter shear is in excess of 30
    knots with 0-500 meter SRH around 300 m2/s2. This kind of low-level
    environment will support at least short-term threat of brief, QLCS
    tornadoes -- especially with any stronger thunderstorm core-boundary interactions.

    The overall large-scale forcing is generally weaker this morning
    with south extent. The current thinking is that the ongoing Georgia thunderstorms should weaken with the severe risk becoming
    increasingly localized as the thunderstorms become more displaced
    from the stronger forcing. A new watch is not expected.

    ..Marsh/Smith.. 05/21/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8YNIB4JQdTeia6Qx9NADa1eqsWJxFr3urNQk4lYWjrEF_JTM8Jh9hS9ncXagx5KxXnxqGgyl3= 6zEGaCv901TX1vfxnI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...FFC...

    LAT...LON 33558436 33938334 33738221 33158172 32298198 32118325
    32758437 33278454 33558436=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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