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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0916

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed May 21 01:58:41 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 210158
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 210158=20
    MSZ000-LAZ000-210400-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0916
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0858 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

    Areas affected...Parts of central Mississippi into far eastern
    Louisiana

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 307...

    Valid 210158Z - 210400Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 307 continues.

    SUMMARY...A localized severe risk continues across parts of central
    Mississippi into far eastern Louisiana in Tornado Watch 307. The
    primary concerns have become damaging wind gusts and large hail,
    though a tornado or two cannot be ruled out -- especially over
    central Mississippi.

    DISCUSSION...Along a northeast/southwest-oriented cold front
    extending from central MS into central LA, a small cluster of severe
    storms continues moving slowly east-southeastward across central MS,
    while a separate supercell structure has recently evolved over far
    east-central LA. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop a warm/moist
    boundary layer (sampled by LCH/JAN 00Z soundings) is still
    contributing to moderate surface-based instability ahead of these
    storms. This, combined with around 50 kt of 0-6 km shear (per VWPs),
    will continue to support the ongoing severe storms as they continue east-southeastward over the next few hours. Given the ongoing storm
    mode, damaging winds and large hail have become the primary
    concerns. However, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out, especially
    with the ongoing cluster of storms over central MS (which has
    recently exhibited supercellular structure) -- given around 250
    m2/s2 0-1km SRH (per DGX VWP data).

    ..Weinman.. 05/21/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8zEX27kmfK_R-HgVSIN3vvhhXDMgumOinkYR99Z0D0AHgePSDYDNZiayoY5etR2VCGjqwFfn2= BQ72c-eQy3zPz0SqMA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

    LAT...LON 32839064 32949018 33108925 33068876 32908844 32518847
    32288871 32048965 31569057 31199127 31069167 31189205
    31429209 31659186 32639096 32839064=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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