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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0883

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 19 20:39:19 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 192038
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 192038=20
    OKZ000-192245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0883
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0338 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

    Areas affected...parts of east central and northeastern Oklahoma

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 292...

    Valid 192038Z - 192245Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 292 continues.

    SUMMARY...Long-lived discrete supercell development accompanied by
    potential for a couple of strong tornadoes remains possible, while
    spreading across the I-40 into I-44 corridors of northeastern
    Oklahoma through 5-7 PM CDT.

    DISCUSSION...A clustering of strong to severe storms, including a
    couple of sustained tornado producing supercells continues to
    develop north/northeastward, within a seasonably moist and
    moderately unstable warm sector, well east of the dryline. This has
    been supported by a weak lead mid-level perturbation progressing
    toward the Ozark Plateau.

    The supercells are generally focused along/west of a strengthening
    (40+ kt) 850 mb jet axis, and now within an area of stronger surface
    pressure falls (including 2-3+ mb/2 hourly, evident in 20Z surface observations). As long as the supercells remain more or less
    discrete, the environment remains conducive to additional tornado
    development, with perhaps some increase in potential for a strong
    tornado or two into early evening.

    ..Kerr.. 05/19/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8VzWikpsGA7kFWkhDOUY-tksC5nTHG6Dk8t3v6jo0pH8HwZTocp78pggSr4faZzRiCAS6_kLB= 6_iACR7rHhfhNboZGk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

    LAT...LON 35559662 36829582 36889510 36239458 34949549 35029560
    34959621 35199669 35559662=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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