ACUS11 KWNS 141816
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141816=20
SDZ000-142015-

Mesoscale Discussion 2067
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Areas affected...portions of western and central South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 141816Z - 142015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms -- the strongest of which may
produce strong/damaging wind gusts and possibly severe-caliber hail
-- are expected from parts of western and central South Dakota. The
very isolated nature of the risk anticipated at this time should
preclude the need for WW issuance.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows isolated, vigorous storms east
of the Black Hills area, with the strongest cells moving
northeastward across the Haakon/Jackson County area at this time.=20
The convection is ongoing within an environment featuring modestly increasing/veering flow with height, providing shear sufficient for
at least multicell organization. Though CAPE will remain limited
due to the dry boundary layer (around 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE
will prevail across the area), a deep sub-cloud layer has evolved in conjunction with diurnal heating. As such, sub-cloud evaporation --
and thus potential for acceleration of the downdrafts -- suggests
that a few stronger/potentially severe gusts will be possible.=20
However, with storms expected to remain isolated, severe-weather
coverage is expected to remain insufficient to require WW
consideration.

..Goss/Gleason.. 09/14/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-oXOyOQ99NqDm9b66PmZXqxEXYfvLDt7MsSODCmBXz-HdK3IZmT9A1281YmC_KXjaJ7N8KsbJ= dLaS4qa_ecUIqCBwk0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...

LAT...LON 45440172 44300327 43030229 43170131 43800026 44659929
45330089 45440172=20


=3D =3D =3D
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