ACUS11 KWNS 152013
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152013=20
KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-152145-
Mesoscale Discussion 0443
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0313 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024
Areas affected...central Nebraska into far northern Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20
Valid 152013Z - 152145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Convective initiation is expected by 21-22Z. A tornado
watch is likely.
DISCUSSION...Robust destabilization is underway across the Plains
with rapid moisture advection occurring across Nebraska. Low 60s
dewpoints are now into southern Nebraska with mid 60s dewpoints
across much of central and eastern Kansas. SPC mesoanalysis shows
inhibition has now mostly eroded across this region and the
aforementioned moisture advection, combined with broad scale ascent
ahead of the primary trough, should allow for convective initiation
within the next 2 hours. Almost all WoFS members show isolated
thunderstorms forming between 21Z and 22Z.
Strong veering wind profiles and strong instability will support
supercells as the storm mode. However, storms should remain fairly
isolated this afternoon and early evening due to the limited
forcing. During the afternoon/early evening, large hail and severe
wind gusts will be possible. The low-level wind profile will be
favorable for tornadoes, but limited moisture may hinder this threat
during the afternoon period.=20
During the late evening and overnight hours. Increasing moisture and
ascent should lead to more widespread convection and a greater
tornado threat. Particularly as the low-level jet intensifies after
sunset.
..Bentley/Smith.. 04/15/2024
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4ID7-OS-ZcCeyXFEeAG092T_7o9jeeqbXdN225vglVjUiju2sZjQRnQ7jacwtS3tjDgTDQrX2= gkH-h0GA6NjHbfgOc8$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...
LAT...LON 39169861 39219938 39990035 40710098 42370156 42910160
43010129 43020027 42819931 42509824 41219733 40159704
39679724 39419807 39169861=20
=3D =3D =3D
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