ACUS11 KWNS 142247
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142246=20
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-150015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0436
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0546 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Areas affected...Eastern OH into much of PA

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 108...

Valid 142246Z - 150015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 108
continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm wind gusts of 60-70 mph and isolated severe
hail remain possible this evening.

DISCUSSION...Despite limited low-level moisture, seasonably strong
diurnal heating beneath cold temperatures aloft has resulted in the
development of extensive deep convection from northeast OH into much
of northern PA. The strongest storms are ongoing this evening across
western PA, where somewhat more favorable low-level moisture
(coincident with a cumulus field across northeast OH) is feeding in
from the west. A 68 mph gust at KYNG was noted earlier, and a
combination of relatively strong low-level flow and a deep,
well-mixed boundary later will continue to support a threat of wind
gusts of up to 60-70 mph through early evening. Steep lapse rates
will continue to support an isolated hail threat, especially with
storms ongoing along the western end of the ongoing QLCS, where
somewhat greater instability in place and there will be less of a
tendency for storm interference. Some backbuilding into eastern OH
will be possible over the next 1-2 hours, before nocturnal cooling/stabilization begins to diminish the threat.=20

Farther east into central/eastern PA, instability is somewhat
weaker, but a threat for damaging winds will accompany the strongest
storms, especially in areas where stronger heating/mixing occurred
earlier today. A gradual weakening trend is expected later this
evening, but some threat for localized damaging winds will persist
for as long as vigorous convection (and its related outflow) can be
sustained as it moves east-southeastward. Depending on convective
trends, local extension of WW 108 may be needed, but additional
downstream watch issuance currently appears unlikely.

..Dean.. 04/14/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-DblKfmWvsW0OxF0cgLE410qRihcCD3rUOZdCGgeuNim0FLEOtLJv-qh5m03OA_UXtg90wB7f= Cd0rYwONV_tb4IFbcM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON 41318148 41117892 41547615 41527572 41217543 40807547
40297815 40257981 40308068 40468149 40618165 41318148=20


=3D =3D =3D
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