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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0426

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Apr 12 00:52:09 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 120052
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 120051=20
    VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-120215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0426
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0751 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

    Areas affected...Portions of western North Carolina and southern
    Virginia

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 106...

    Valid 120051Z - 120215Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 106 continues.

    SUMMARY...The risk for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes will
    continue this evening. Short bowing segments and a few supercells
    should continue into south-central VA and central NC tonight. Some
    guidance suggests the severe threat may persist beyond WW106 this
    evening.

    DISCUSSION...As of 0040 UTC, ongoing storms over portions of NC/VA
    have produced several reports of damage. Storm organization has
    trended towards more liner structures over the last couple of hours
    owing to numerous storm interactions. However, more clustered
    cellular elements have persisted to the south. The environment ahead
    of these storms across parts of south-central VA and west-central NC
    remains modestly unstable and strongly sheared with ESRH of 250-400
    m2/s2. Rotating structures within the line and broader cluster will
    likely remain capable of damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes
    into this evening. Recent HRRR guidance also suggests these storms
    may continue to pose a severe risk across parts of southern VA and
    central NC later this evening. While it is somewhat unclear how far
    north/east the risk may continue this evening with weakening
    buoyancy and nocturnal cooling, the general environment remains
    favorable. Mesoscale trends will be monitored for the need of a
    downstream watch should storms maintain intensity.

    ..Lyons/Thompson.. 04/12/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4rX1z-Ps-B0mH2yColzzwiqTiAquIYNnGFGqt6Fzi39UWFihFfMac57AEa67Fsf0Tva-xN0tw= p_7ov8vIGM-7J8jdPo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...GSP...

    LAT...LON 35677867 34767954 34847983 35118001 35498028 35838043
    36088053 36538059 37068051 37727950 37877904 37857862
    37717830 37487815 37127810 36667814 36527822 36007850
    35677867=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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