ACUS11 KWNS 100659
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100658=20
TXZ000-100830-

Mesoscale Discussion 0408
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Areas affected...Middle TX Coastal Plain into Southeast TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 98...99...

Valid 100658Z - 100830Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 98, 99
continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind gusts continues from the Middle
TX Coastal Plain into Southeast TX. An increase in the damaging wind
gust potential is anticipated across southeast TX over the next few
hours.

DISCUSSION...Recent regional radar imagery depicts a convective line
extending from Fayette County in the middle TX coastal plain south-southwestward into Brooks County in deep south TX. Updrafts
within the northern portion of this line have remain relatively
strong over the past hour or so. Some sharpening of the reflectivity
gradient has also been noted within this portion of the line as
well. The downstream airmass across southeast TX is characterized by
steep mid-level lapse rates (noted in the 04Z CRP sounding) and
strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg in latest mesoanalysis).
Moderate vertical shear exist across the region as well, with the
HGX VAD recently sampling 51 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear. This
combination of buoyancy and shear should be more than sufficient for maintenance of the ongoing line, with a continued threat for
damaging wind gusts and/or large hail.=20

There is also the potential for more organization within this line
as the primary shortwave currently over the southern continues to
progress eastward, contributing to increase large-scale forcing for
ascent. Additionally, an outflow boundary from early convection
stretches across the region, evidenced by wind shift from southerly
across the upper TX Coast to more northerly/northeasterly farther
north. This boundary could act as a corridor of greater severe
potential, particularly for damaging gusts, as it provides
additional mesoscale ascent.

..Mosier.. 04/10/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5K7H_ob-TiDyE761aNj8Sa-rvU3WlSMkNJ2dJyFgN2M62fCUPl52ebze27wRnF-oXAVXG97Yp= DFtpFljBuZj_CyzhqE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON 28519740 29229742 29819717 30239635 30029495 29109488
28499608 28369682 28519740=20


=3D =3D =3D
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