ACUS11 KWNS 100313
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100312=20
TXZ000-100445-

Mesoscale Discussion 0407
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1012 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024

Areas affected...Parts of south and southeast TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 96...98...

Valid 100312Z - 100445Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 96, 98
continues.

SUMMARY...An increasing severe-wind threat is expected late tonight,
along with a continued hail risk. Downstream watch issuance is
likely by midnight CDT.

DISCUSSION...A supercell cluster near/east of Austin has shown signs
of accelerating eastward late this evening, with a substantial hail
core recently noted in MRMS data near Bastrop. MLCAPE of greater
than 2000 J/kg and favorable deep-layer shear will continue to
support large hail (potentially greater than 2 inches in diameter)
with embedded supercells in the cluster. Consolidating outflows may
also pose an increasing severe-wind threat as this cluster moves
eastward late tonight.=20

Farther southwest, deep convection has recently erupted across
southern portions of the Hill Country into western parts of deep
south TX, where a cold front has intercepted returning low-level
moisture. Instability and deep-layer shear are favorable for
supercells in this region as well, and a threat for large to very
large hail will accompany these storms as they move eastward. Most
recent CAM guidance suggests eventual upscale growth in this region,
which will then move quickly east-northeastward toward the TX Gulf
Coast with time, accompanied by a threat for severe wind gusts
potentially exceeding 75 mph. Some tornado threat could also
eventually evolve near the TX Coast overnight, as the upscale
growing storm cluster encounters deeper moisture and stronger
low-level flow/shear.=20

With a substantial severe threat expected to eventually spread
toward the TX Gulf Coast, downstream watch issuance is likely by
midnight CDT.

..Dean/Hart.. 04/10/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-xeXKHSLIVwsQjpSKHRSmaL3tcSK5Vq9adOVaJ-6BTYxPrd0QNV5-iBt_Wj1VldMYQkDhFbEy= srjFoUrQ0DGp5iiyBA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON 28050036 29709916 30349751 31209714 31319586 31049522
30479511 30159517 29749541 28869659 27819887 27519970
28050036=20


=3D =3D =3D
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