ACUS11 KWNS 092050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092050=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-092215-
Mesoscale Discussion 0399
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024
Areas affected...Portions of far east TX into western/northern LA
Concerning...Tornado Watch 95...
Valid 092050Z - 092215Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 95 continues.
SUMMARY...Severe/damaging wind potential may increase in the short
term with a small bow moving eastward across parts of
western/northern Louisiana. Significant severe winds up to around 75
mph appear possible.
DISCUSSION...A small bowing complex continues to organize across far
east TX into far western LA. Even with cloud cover remaining
prevalent downstream into northern LA, gradual airmass
destabilization is occurring along and north of a surface boundary.
Around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE will likely be sufficient to maintain
current thunderstorm intensities, and strong deep-layer shear will
be more than enough for continued convective organization with the
bow. Recent Warn on Forecast (WoF) output shows increasing potential
(greater than 50% chance) for severe-caliber winds of 50 kt or
greater with this bow as it spreads eastward across parts of
northern LA over the next couple of hours. Some chance for
significant severe winds up to around 75 mph also appears possible.
With ample 0-1 km shear present, and low-level winds backed to
easterly along/near the surface boundary, a tornado threat will also
exist. The best chance for a tornado will probably remain focused
with embedded circulations within the bow, and along the surface
boundary.
..Gleason.. 04/09/2024
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8_w35Kh7Hu8r7AzH3gzApzn9v3GI0m-ZnnRaZxF2rYmEltJXksf_FmkxcpMyD_tnw3wAicRPZ= JBORMiOjIOrb-hREgw$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...
LAT...LON 32249446 32599442 32749359 32719218 32269206 31609214
31479318 31269441 31749433 32249446=20
=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at
cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)