ACUS11 KWNS 091712
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091712=20
TXZ000-091845-
Mesoscale Discussion 0397
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024
Areas affected...Portions of central TX
Concerning...Tornado Watch 94...
Valid 091712Z - 091845Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 94 continues.
SUMMARY...A threat for tornadoes, hail, and damaging winds
continues. The need for and timing of a downstream watch into east
Texas remains unclear.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have remain focused along/very near the
convectively reinforced outflow boundary that is draped southwest to
northeast across central TX. Mergers/interactions between various
thunderstorms have led to an overall messy convective mode. Even so,
the environment remains conditionally favorable for severe
convection, including supercells, given adequate instability and
ample deep-layer shear. In the short term, the tornado threat will
continue to be supported by a 30-40 kt south-southwesterly low-level
jet providing generally 200-300 m2/s2 of effective SRH. But, the
best chance for tornadoes will probably occur with any supercell
that can develop/persist on the southern flank of the ongoing
convection. Similarly, the hail threat will be tied to a supercell
being able to remain at least semi-discrete, which remains
questionable given the ongoing thunderstorm evolution.
Severe/damaging wind potential may increase through the early
afternoon if a cluster can consolidate and spread eastward. The need
for and timing of a downstream watch into east TX remains uncertain,
as widespread cloud cover is slowing airmass recovery along/near the
surface boundary in the wake of earlier convection.
..Gleason.. 04/09/2024
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_cwDceOJ7z7A5ENU4wMJ1Ku9DXV27VFZLXy5otY1pvSdqFNhsUaT8eZmZr7lkTqVxFtuni7T6= 6tNEPBQquZjAKnBnNI$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...
LAT...LON 31279834 31919685 32159564 31969524 31389498 30839633
30489768 30449836 31019839 31279834=20
=3D =3D =3D
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