• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0392

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Apr 9 07:57:40 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 090757
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 090757=20
    TXZ000-090930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0392
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0257 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024

    Areas affected...North-Central into Northeast TX

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 93...

    Valid 090757Z - 090930Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 93
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Isolated damaging gusts will remain possible for the next
    few hours from north-central Texas into northeast Texas.

    DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a meso-low coincident
    with the ongoing thunderstorm over northeast portions of the
    Metroplex. An outflow-augmented cold front extends southwestward
    from this low into southwest TX. A warm front also extends eastward
    from this low into northeast TX. Airmass to the east of the ongoing thunderstorm is characterized by low-level stability beneath steep
    mid-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer vertical shear. This
    environment supports the persistence of the ongoing storms as they
    continue eastward, likely trending more elevated with time. Even so, occasionally strong to severe downdrafts could still reach the
    surface over the next hour or two, particularly as this storm
    interacts with the warm front (as evidenced by a recent gust of 53
    kt at KDFW).

    Farther south and west, the airmass is not as hostile to
    surface-based storms and additional development along the southeastward-progressing front/outflow is possible. However, the
    notably dry mid-levels will likely act as a deterrent for sustained
    updrafts, limiting the likelihood for mature updrafts and keeping
    the overall severe potential low.

    ..Mosier.. 04/09/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5FbKQR46qGEZRwcFkqAcrNBvZNCeYS4WDXMrtNTE4vNuKTJtPYOHTS5C0CS9mwOJwhfx3uznm= VPMzfM6WDccVCB1A5E$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...

    LAT...LON 33129718 33689628 33749568 33329513 32849509 32019733
    32009830 32559830 33129718=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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