ACUS11 KWNS 082256
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082255=20
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-090030-
Mesoscale Discussion 0387
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0555 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024
Areas affected...Parts of central/northeast TX into extreme
northwest LA/southwest AR
Concerning...Tornado Watch 90...
Valid 082255Z - 090030Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 90 continues.
SUMMARY...The short-term severe threat remains uncertain, but a
couple stronger supercells and/or storm clusters could evolve with
time this evening, with all severe hazards possible.
DISCUSSION...Convection has continued to spread northward from
central into northeast TX, along the northern periphery of deeper
returning low-level moisture. Despite MLCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg
and favorable deep-layer shear, convection has struggled to remain
organized thus far, possibly due to a lack of stronger low-level
flow and the impacts of northward-moving outflow. However, some
short-term threat for hail and gusty winds may move north of WW 90
early this evening.=20
As the low-level jet strengthens a little later this evening,
ongoing convection may become more organized, with potential for a
stronger supercell or two and/or an upscale growing cluster to
develop with time. Should this occur, some increase in the tornado
threat would be possible, in addition to an ongoing threat for hail
and localized damaging gusts.=20
Depending on short-term convective trends, WW 90 may need to be
expanded to the north and west to cover the severe threat.
Otherwise, there is some potential for additional watch issuance
across parts of central/northeast TX later this evening, depending
on the evolution of both ongoing convection and potential storm
development to the west.
..Dean/Hart.. 04/08/2024
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-ae-fSeUdRaIE96u4UdkZH9uklbbcSVDR6yCG3luYlvyJwxnu4lu5zWo2kDKxEVmaDp_P00nT= pM9PAhlxtuHZ5iWPvQ$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...
LAT...LON 30779765 32139697 33039492 33359377 32449346 31629486
30519749 30779765=20
=3D =3D =3D
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