ACUS11 KWNS 031520
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031520=20
MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-031715-
Mesoscale Discussion 0368
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1020 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024
Areas affected...Portions of northern NC into VA...MD...and DE
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20
Valid 031520Z - 031715Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...The threat for severe thunderstorms capable of producing
damaging winds, a few tornadoes and perhaps some hail should
gradually increase over the next couple of hours. Watch issuance
will probably be needed.
DISCUSSION...15Z surface observations show a front draped southwest
to northeast across VA into MD/DE, with a surface low centered over
southwest VA. This low is forecast to slowly deepen as it develops northeastward along the front towards central VA/MD by late this
afternoon. Although clouds remain widespread across much of the
Mid-Atlantic, a moist and gradually destabilizing airmass is present along/south of the front into NC. A lobe of ascent associated with
the left exit region of a strong upper-level jet and a mid-level
vorticity maximum over the central Appalachians will likely
encourage additional convective development in the next 1-2 hours
across western into central VA. This activity will likely become
organized, with the potential for a mix of small bowing clusters and
supercells possible given the presence of very strong deep-layer
shear.
Instability may tend to remain fairly muted given the widespread
cloud cover. Still, MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg should eventually
develop with continued low-level warming/moistening, and given
steepened mid-level lapse rates noted on the 12Z RNK sounding.
Damaging winds will be possible with any robust cluster that can
develop and track northeastward. A tornado threat should exist with
any supercell, as 0-1 km shear of 35-40 kt and ample effective SRH
should encourage low-level updraft rotation. Isolated hail may also
occur with any convection that can remain semi-discrete. Given
expectations for a gradually increasing severe threat in the next
1-2 hours, watch issuance will probably be needed.
..Gleason/Thompson.. 04/03/2024
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8eBgt8B0VeHMhYIxmQHokOsiyzGDwSqpeP_gi-WcXj5vTXHceyf1sCsI4oIxNM-aVhRfymzhz= EiRsGtkt7LX-ix865A$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...
LAT...LON 36407975 36987971 37767885 38757723 38867601 38647503
38337502 37517552 36757638 36127742 36087899 36407975=20
=3D =3D =3D
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