• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0363

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Apr 3 06:13:45 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 030613
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 030613=20
    GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-030745-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0363
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0113 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024

    Areas affected...far southeast Alabama...southwest Georgia and the
    Florida Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 030613Z - 030745Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms may develop over
    parts of the Florida Panhandle into southwest Georgia through the
    overnight hours. Watch issuance is uncertain and area will continue
    to be monitored.

    DISCUSSION...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to
    lift northeast into portions of the MCD area through the remainder
    of the overnight hours. Strong vertical shear is in place across
    this region with regional VWP data indicating shear suitable for
    supercells. However, a 06z RAOB from TLH shows substantial capping
    near 700 mb. Forecast soundings suggest capping may erode
    sufficiently for surface-based storms late tonight into the early
    morning hours as large-scale ascent increases. However, weak
    instability and poor lapse rates may preclude a more robust severe
    threat. Trends will continue to be monitored for possible watch
    issuance.

    ..Leitman/Smith.. 04/03/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7odDBakV_RhAEk5F6q5w2373Wb_IZBmJx3EiLFCi0JXejbKVk4skhAhLJyUiQMBU6au9wChSd= 4pYoDLgpKerJafsTbQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

    LAT...LON 31578615 32008485 32008360 31908302 31278289 30758307
    29398429 29398536 29978639 30698634 31578615=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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