ACUS11 KWNS 020346
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020345=20
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-020515-
Mesoscale Discussion 0335
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1045 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024
Areas affected...portions of southeastern Oklahoma into northeastern
Texas and far western Arkansas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 70...
Valid 020345Z - 020515Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 70
continues.
SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 70. The main severe threat exists across northern portions of
the watch as a line of storms approaches from the west. Damaging
gusts are the main threat, though a tornado cannot be ruled out.
DISCUSSION...The earlier QLCS with embedded supercells across
northern TX has diminished in intensity given increasing inhibition.
However, a pronounced QLCS is in progress across central OK, and
this convection may move into Severe Thunderstorm Watch 70 over the
next few hours with a damaging gust threat. Portions of the watch
across eastern OK into western AR will most likely experience this
QLCS later this evening. It is unclear how far south the QLCS will
build into TX, so the severe threat is more conditional across the
TX portion of the watch. Regional VADs, 03Z mesoanalysis, and RAP
forecast soundings all show elongated hodographs with decent
low-level curvature. However, CINH is increasing above the boundary
layer given nocturnal cooling, tempering the tornado threat.
Nonetheless, a tornado cannot be completely ruled out if a QLCS
circulation can ingest any surface-based parcels.
..Squitieri.. 04/02/2024
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7F8EcW4YsBkTjfw6dBiAxP_wdhEF8gllQ9rpiSkmwi5px0wNeDGeRZP2luCmtRzxqFEROp2MR= DsMDzf23be3n-NuovA$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 33639449 33409486 33329588 33439637 33469647 33789630
35309524 36219452 36299369 35819349 33639449=20
=3D =3D =3D
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