ACUS11 KWNS 020102
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020101=20
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-020230-
Mesoscale Discussion 0331
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0801 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024
Areas affected...portions of eastern Texas into southeastern
Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20
Valid 020101Z - 020230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing across portions of
northeastern Texas into southeastern Oklahoma. Severe hail and wind
are the main threats, though a tornado cannot be ruled out. A WW
issuance is likely over the next hour or so.
DISCUSSION...A QLCS with embedded supercells is progressing across
the metroplex, with copious amounts of 2-3 inch hail reported with
the northernmost supercell. These storms are advancing eastward
across a buoyant warm sector, overspread by 50-70 kts of effective
bulk shear, so the severe threat is expected to persist with the
ongoing storms for several more hours. The 00Z FWD observed sounding
showed 9 C/km mid-level lapse rates and elongated hodographs. As
such, embedded supercells should continue east of the ongoing
watches with the potential for severe (50+ kt) gusts and large hail
(with some 1-2 inch stones possible). Since the storms will be
approaching the western extent of a low-level jet, a modest increase
in low-level shear may also support the development of a tornado or
two. A WW issuance will be needed soon to address the impending
severe threat.
..Squitieri/Hart.. 04/02/2024
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8yhsPqT50g-Wd1GK1mSsGsdLv7rCWI7C0zXtMZQC63VacD4SaFohhUacHfg0X1Qhoz2aXGXgY= KyXi8yJg4vpHj2D5QY$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 31489752 34509559 35359520 35509474 35209434 34359410
33659408 32869445 32119524 31579619 31489752=20
=3D =3D =3D
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