ACUS11 KWNS 012253
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012253=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-020030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0328
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0553 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024

Areas affected...much of central OK into northern TX

Concerning...Tornado Watch 65...

Valid 012253Z - 020030Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 65 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 65. Very
large (2-3 inch diameter) hail appears to be the main threat, though
a few tornadoes remain possible with the more dominant supercells.

DISCUSSION...Deep-layer ascent from the ejecting mid-level trough is overspreading the southern Plains, likely contributing to the recent
uptick in convective coverage and intensity over southwestern into
central OK. Despite persistent cloud cover and the presence of a
broader rain shield overspreading western into central OK, adequate
deep-layer shear and overall buoyancy will still support an
appreciable severe threat into the evening. The 19Z OUN observed
sounding showed 9 C/km mid-level lapse rates atop a capping
inversion, which has been gradually eroding with time. Regional
VADs, the 19Z observed sounding, and 22Z mesoanalysis, all depict
elongated hodographs, with over 70 kts of effective bulk shear
present. The very steep mid-level lapse rates and strong effective
bulk shear all suggest that large hail (some stones falling within
the 2-3 inch diameter range) will be possible with any more
persistent, mature supercells that can develop. Despite current
meager low-level shear, an increase in low-level jet intensity may
boost SRH later this evening, potentially accompanied by an
increasing tornado threat, especially in eastern OK.

..Squitieri.. 04/01/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7b_UFBLsunGVURUbq3J-Y5pvQ3l72eMan2jRlw9316JI56kalFxhyuuOUlOcrteVCXGKe7okc= sonS22wRp5_ZT44sXE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON 33489943 35259875 36499796 36989612 36779515 36009509
35079549 34059596 33599666 33059711 33079813 33129893
33489943=20


=3D =3D =3D
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