ACUS11 KWNS 012226
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012226=20
TXZ000-020000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0326
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0526 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024

Areas affected...portions of western Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 66...

Valid 012226Z - 020000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 66
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 66. Very large hail and hurricane-force gusts will remain
possible with the strongest storms through evening, and a tornado
cannot be ruled out. Storms may develop farther south across
southwestern into central TX and local WW extensions or new watches
may eventually become necessary.

DISCUSSION...Semi-discrete storms, including supercells, have been
progressing eastward across portions of northwestern TX with a
history of up to baseball sized hail and near 90 mph measured gusts.
Diurnal heating ahead of the ongoing line of storms has allowed for
surface temperatures to warm to over 80 F amid upper 60s F
dewpoints, minimizing CINH and boosting MLCAPE to 2000 J/kg (per 22Z mesoanalysis). Buoyancy is modest, but more than adequate in
supporting continued significant-severe weather given the presence
of 80+ kts of effective bulk shear (driven by a 30+ kt low-level jet
overspread by over 80 kts of 500 mb southwesterly flow). As such,
the more sustained supercell structures may continue to produce
severe hail in the 2-3 inch diameter range, along with severe gusts
peaking between 75-90 mph. The best chance for significant-severe
storms will be over northwestern into north-central TX, where
deep-layer ascent is the strongest. Additionally, regional VADs and
22Z mesoanalysis does show some slight low-level hodograph
curvature, suggesting that a tornado cannot be ruled out as well.

Farther south, storms are attempting to develop closer to the Rio
Grande. However, overall forcing for ascent is weaker, raising
questions pertaining to storm coverage. Still, given the strong
deep-layer shear present, any storms that can mature and become
sustained will present a severe hail/wind risk. A local spatial
extension of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 66 may be needed if
confidence in convective coverage increases farther south into
southern and central TX.

..Squitieri.. 04/01/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!51f5ucWMjIm4ssLPaRyWlRRGcMl29Pk6rgi-U-anfKq4QSAiBxmfcFexmO8XC1ZbVnIxzS1Gj= iJ5d4qgzkpjVBUdoRo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 29080091 29730135 30990084 31810003 32809879 32969812
32999740 32939686 32789678 32429708 32059749 31029868
30130005 29080091=20


=3D =3D =3D
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