• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0323

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Apr 1 19:47:27 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 011947
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 011946=20
    WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-012145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0323
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0246 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024

    Areas affected...Portions of Middle/Upper Ohio Valley

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 011946Z - 012145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Should storms develop/mature, large hail and damaging
    winds will be possible. Storm coverage may remain isolated this
    afternoon and the need for a watch is not certain. Convective trends
    will be monitored.

    DISCUSSION...Destabilization continues along/south of a warm front
    within the Ohio Valley vicinity. A few weak convective cores within
    southern Indiana continue eastward. These storms may be capable of
    small hail. Continued heating/warm advection within the frontal zone
    may lead to additional storms along the boundary. Effective shear of
    40-50 kts and MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg will mean potentially
    organized storms, should they mature. The main uncertainty is how
    intense these storms will become given neutral to modest mid-level
    height rises this afternoon. A watch is not anticipated in the short
    term, but convective trends will be monitored. A more substantial
    severe threat is expected later this evening/overnight.

    ..Wendt/Thompson.. 04/01/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5G90SO5MSEqAoa60AQKTWK5N2GdKnqLiq8z2YprjPYxZ47MR7-B01nLmL-F_A0ggMhxs4Gmt1= PdWnJXD0lMsIP5zOzo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...

    LAT...LON 37838298 37708422 37858556 37978682 38308760 39358750
    39728640 39488323 39028139 38288144 37838298=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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