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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0317

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Mar 31 22:27:16 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 312227
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 312226=20
    ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-010030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0317
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0526 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024

    Areas affected...portions of northern Missouri into central Illinois

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 312226Z - 010030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe hail will accompany ongoing elevated supercell in
    west-central IL, moving into central IL, in the near term.
    Convective initiation is more uncertain farther south along the warm
    front in northern MO given weak forcing. Buoyancy and shear does
    favor severe storm development should convective initiation occur.
    Convective trends are being monitored for the need of a WW issuance.

    DISCUSSION...An elevated supercell in west-central IL, with a
    history of marginally severe hail, persists within strong zonal
    mid-level flow to the north of a warm front. Strong 850-700 mb WAA
    continues to advect adequate moisture ahead of the supercell in
    central IL, boosting MUCAPE into the 500-1000 J/kg range (per 21Z mesoanalysis). Meanwhile the stronger southwesterly WAA beneath 60+
    kt westerly 500 mb flow is contributing to modestly curved but
    elongated hodographs. As such, severe hail development may persist
    with this supercell for a couple more hours.

    Meanwhile, surface-based convective initiation from agitated CU
    farther south along the warm front, draped from roughly Linn County
    MO to Jasper County IL, remains uncertain in the absence of strong
    forcing. Surface heating has boosted MLCAPE into the 1000-1500 J/kg
    range amid stronger deep-layer shear (i.e. elongated and curved
    hodographs supporting 60+ kts of effective bulk shear). As such, any
    storms that can initiate and become sustained may produce severe
    hail/wind. Convective trends will continue to be monitored for the
    possibility of convective initiation over the next few hours.

    ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 03/31/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7PJ0v1gjrOEu2CxEYvARJ0b6QCQ_P0xUIluhnqylHLJlWPPHa9nQLiFd2JxXqW401ZPofu118= msV4eZnCzgAyBs5fhk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...

    LAT...LON 39919320 40399240 40689096 40678934 40358816 39788775
    39208768 38848780 38788853 39149028 39539183 39669268
    39919320=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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